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Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 158701 (2002) [4 pages]

Volatility Clustering and Scaling for Financial Time Series due to Attractor Bubbling

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A. Krawiecki1,2, J. A. Hołyst1,2, and D. Helbing2
1Faculty of Physics, Warsaw University of Technology, Koszykowa 75, PL-00-662 Warsaw, Poland
2Institute for Economics and Traffic, Dresden University of Technology, D-01062 Dresden, Germany

Received 22 January 2002; published 18 September 2002

A microscopic model of financial markets is considered, consisting of many interacting agents (spins) with global coupling and discrete-time heat bath dynamics, similar to random Ising systems. The interactions between agents change randomly in time. In the thermodynamic limit, the obtained time series of price returns show chaotic bursts resulting from the emergence of attractor bubbling or on-off intermittency, resembling the empirical financial time series with volatility clustering. For a proper choice of the model parameters, the probability distributions of returns exhibit power-law tails with scaling exponents close to the empirical ones.

© 2002 The American Physical Society

URL:
http://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.158701
DOI:
10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.158701
PACS:
89.65.Gh, 05.45.Tp, 05.50.+q, 05.70.–a