Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 228501 (2005) [4 pages]

Convex Error Growth Patterns in a Global Weather Model

Abstract

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John Harlim^*, Michael Oczkowski^†, James A. Yorke, Eugenia Kalnay, and Brian R. Hunt
Institute for Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA

Received 11 October 2004; published 10 June 2005

We investigate the error growth, that is, the growth in the distance E between two typical solutions of a weather model. Typically E grows until it reaches a saturation value E_s. We find two distinct broad log-linear regimes, one for E below 2% of E_s and the other for E above. In each, log⁡(E/E_s) grows as if satisfying a linear differential equation. When plotting dlog⁡(E)/dt vs log⁡(E), the graph is convex. We argue this behavior is quite different from other dynamics problems with saturation values, which yield concave graphs.

URL:

http://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.94.228501

DOI:

10.1103/PhysRevLett.94.228501

PACS:

92.60.Wc, 05.45.Jn, 05.45.Pq

^*Electronic address: jharlim@math.umd.edu

^†Present address: Department of Physics and Astronomy, Francis Marion University, Florence, SC 29501.

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Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 228501 (2005) [4 pages]

Convex Error Growth Patterns in a Global Weather Model